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Köttmannsdorf vs Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Köttmannsdorf
Köttmannsdorf
FT
0 – 2
Bleiburg
Bleiburg
9/6/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 7Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Köttmannsdorf46%
×Draw24%
Bleiburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köttmannsdorf
1.71
Bleiburg
1.36

Köttmannsdorf creates 26% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.64
Bleiburg
1.29

allows per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.43
Bleiburg
1.78

finishing

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par
Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köttmannsdorf ↓

Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Köttmannsdorf or draw
69%
Köttmannsdorf or Bleiburg
76%
Draw or Bleiburg
54%

Winning margin

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+
24%
Bleiburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals
82%
Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals
51%
Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals
24%
Bleiburg 1+ goals
74%
Bleiburg 2+ goals
39%
Bleiburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)
60%
Bleiburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köttmannsdorf at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 91 matches

Bleiburg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.78 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.64 + Bleiburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bleiburg attack 1.29 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Köttmannsdorf scores more
46%
level
24%
Bleiburg scores more
31%

Köttmannsdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Köttmannsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Köttmannsdorf vs Bleiburg

Bleiburg beat Köttmannsdorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf in Köttmannsdorf.