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Bleiburg vs Köttmannsdorf — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Bleiburg
Bleiburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Köttmannsdorf
Köttmannsdorf
10/25/2025Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 14Karl-Kornberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bleiburg47%
×Draw23%
Köttmannsdorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bleiburg
1.77
Köttmannsdorf
1.38

Bleiburg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Bleiburg
1.57
Köttmannsdorf
1.43

allows per match

Bleiburg
1.33
Köttmannsdorf
1.98

finishing

Bleiburg+0.00on par
Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bleiburg ↓

Köttmannsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bleiburg or draw
70%
Bleiburg or Köttmannsdorf
77%
Draw or Köttmannsdorf
53%

Winning margin

Bleiburg wins by 2+
25%
Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bleiburg 1+ goals
83%
Bleiburg 2+ goals
53%
Bleiburg 3+ goals
26%
Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals
75%
Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals
40%
Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bleiburg (draw refunded)
61%
Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bleiburg at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Köttmannsdorf away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bleiburg attack 1.57 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.43 + Bleiburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bleiburg scores more
47%
level
23%
Köttmannsdorf scores more
30%

Bleiburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bleiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Bleiburg 1–2 Köttmannsdorf

Köttmannsdorf beat Bleiburg 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Karl-Kornberger-Stadion in Bleiburg.