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Kottern vs Grünwald — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Kottern
Kottern
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Grünwald
Grünwald
11/9/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 20ABT-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kottern59%
×Draw19%
Grünwald22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kottern
2.37
Grünwald
1.39

Kottern creates 71% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kottern
1.79
Grünwald
1.25

allows per match

Kottern
1.53
Grünwald
2.94

finishing

Kottern+0.00on par
Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kottern ↓

Grünwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kottern or draw
78%
Kottern or Grünwald
81%
Draw or Grünwald
41%

Winning margin

Kottern wins by 2+
37%
Grünwald wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kottern 1+ goals
91%
Kottern 2+ goals
68%
Kottern 3+ goals
42%
Grünwald 1+ goals
75%
Grünwald 2+ goals
40%
Grünwald 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kottern (draw refunded)
73%
Grünwald (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kottern at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.53 · 66 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kottern attack 1.79 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.37

Grünwald attack 1.25 + Kottern defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kottern scores more
59%
level
19%
Grünwald scores more
22%

Kottern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kottern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Kottern 3–2 Grünwald

Kottern beat Grünwald 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at ABT-Arena in Durach.