Grünwald 0–2 Kottern: Result & Stats

Grünwald

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kottern

7/30/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Sportplatz Grünwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Grünwald42%

×Draw22%

Kottern36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrünwaldExpected goals in this matchKottern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.69

Grünwald

1.84

Kottern

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

2.13

creates per match

1.44

1.94

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Grünwald

2.13

Kottern

1.44

allows per match

Grünwald

1.94

Kottern

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grünwald+0.00on par

Kottern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grünwald ↓

Kottern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Grünwald or draw

64%

Grünwald or Kottern

78%

Draw or Kottern

58%

Winning margin

Grünwald wins by 2+

22%

Kottern wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Grünwald 1+ goals

84%

Grünwald 2+ goals

55%

Grünwald 3+ goals

28%

Kottern 1+ goals

82%

Kottern 2+ goals

50%

Kottern 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Grünwald (draw refunded)

54%

Kottern (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grünwald at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Kottern away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grünwald attack 2.13 + Kottern defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kottern attack 1.44 + Grünwald defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grünwald scores more

42%

level

22%

Kottern scores more

36%

Grünwald at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grünwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff