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Kotoku Royals vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
R. Dzikoe 66', 43'
A. Boakye 39'
F. A. Kumi 12'
A. Latif 85' (pen)
G. Asiamah 61'
3/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals51%
×Draw25%
King Faisal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.58
King Faisal
1.00

Kotoku Royals creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 58 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
76%
Kotoku Royals or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
49%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
26%
King Faisal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
79%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
47%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
21%
King Faisal 1+ goals
63%
King Faisal 2+ goals
26%
King Faisal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
68%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
51%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
24%

Kotoku Royals at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
F. A. Kumi
25'
39'
A. Boakye
43'
R. Dzikoe
61'
G. Asiamah
66'
R. Dzikoe
75'
K. Owusu← K. Owusu
75'
D. Asamoah← D. Asamoah
85'
A. LatifPenalty
90+2'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotoku Royals vs King Faisal

Kotoku Royals beat King Faisal 4-2 in Premier League on March 24, 2023.

Goals: F. A. Kumi (12'), A. Boakye (39'), R. Dzikoe (43', 66'), G. Asiamah (61'), A. Latif (85' pen).

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.