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King Faisal vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
A. Tetteh 60' (pen)
S. Adom Antwi 25'
E. Marfo 81'
11/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

King Faisal58%
×Draw25%
Kotoku Royals17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.62
Kotoku Royals
0.76

King Faisal creates 113% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.18
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

King Faisal
0.92
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
83%
King Faisal or Kotoku Royals
75%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
42%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
31%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
80%
King Faisal 2+ goals
48%
King Faisal 3+ goals
22%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
53%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
18%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
77%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

King Faisal scores more
58%
level
25%
Kotoku Royals scores more
17%

King Faisal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
25'
S. Adom Antwi
28'
32'
52'
D. Oppong
60'
A. TettehPenalty
72'
J. Opoku Nyimfa← J. Opoku Nyimfa
72'
S. Dauda← S. Dauda
78'
J. Osei← J. Osei
81'
E. Marfo
90+2'
J. Adu Dwomoh← J. Adu Dwomoh
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Kotoku Royals

King Faisal beat Kotoku Royals 2-1 in Premier League on November 11, 2022.

Goals: S. Adom Antwi (25'), A. Tetteh (60' pen), E. Marfo (81').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.