Kotoku Royals 0–1 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

Kotoku Royals

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hearts of Oak

D. Afriyie 31' (pen)

11/5/2022

Premier League · Round 5Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals40%

×Draw29%

Hearts of Oak31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotoku RoyalsExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

Kotoku Royals

1.17

Hearts of Oak

1.00

Kotoku Royals creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

1.47

creates per match

0.72

1.29

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Kotoku Royals

1.47

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

Kotoku Royals

1.29

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw

69%

Kotoku Royals or Hearts of Oak

71%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

60%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

17%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

69%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

33%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

11%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

63%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

26%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

56%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more

40%

level

29%

Hearts of Oak scores more

31%

Kotoku Royals at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. AfriyiePenalty

60'

61'

D. Afriyie

69'

S. Suraj← S. Suraj

75'

G. J. Otanga Mvouo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff