Hearts of Oak 1–0 Kotoku Royals: Result & Stats

Hearts of Oak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kotoku Royals

C. Amankwah 90+6'

3/19/2023

Premier League · Round 22Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hearts of Oak62%

×Draw24%

Kotoku Royals14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchKotoku Royals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.62

Hearts of Oak

1.65

Kotoku Royals

0.62

Hearts of Oak creates 166% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

0.59

0.65

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.24

Kotoku Royals

0.59

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.65

Kotoku Royals

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Kotoku Royals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

86%

Hearts of Oak or Kotoku Royals

76%

Draw or Kotoku Royals

38%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

35%

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

81%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

49%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

23%

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

46%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

13%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

82%

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

62%

level

24%

Kotoku Royals scores more

14%

Hearts of Oak at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

C. Kudjoe

56'

S. Ibrahim← S. Ibrahim

90+6'

C. Amankwah

90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff