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Kotoku Royals vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
C. Kudjoe 79', 59'
F. A. Kumi 65'
3/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals45%
×Draw27%
Dreams28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.37
Dreams
1.03

Kotoku Royals creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
72%
Kotoku Royals or Dreams
73%
Draw or Dreams
55%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
21%
Dreams wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
75%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
40%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
16%
Dreams 1+ goals
64%
Dreams 2+ goals
28%
Dreams 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
61%
Dreams (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dreams attack 0.77 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
45%
level
27%
Dreams scores more
28%

Kotoku Royals at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
C. Kudjoe
65'
F. A. Kumi
79'
C. Kudjoe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 3–0 Dreams

Kotoku Royals beat Dreams 3-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2023.

Goals: C. Kudjoe (59', 79'), F. A. Kumi (65').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.