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Dreams vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
A. Huzaf 71'
9/17/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dreams66%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.84
Kotoku Royals
0.65

Dreams creates 183% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.62
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Dreams
0.71
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
87%
Dreams or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
34%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
39%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
84%
Dreams 2+ goals
55%
Dreams 3+ goals
28%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
48%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
14%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
84%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dreams scores more
66%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
13%

Dreams at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Huzaf
69'
S. Yakubu
69'
D. Awuah← D. Awuah
69'
N. Seidu← N. Seidu
71'
A. Huzaf
78'
S. Boakye← S. Boakye
80'
E. Marfo← E. Marfo
84'
90+2'
A. Aziz Issah← A. Aziz Issah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dreams 1–0 Kotoku Royals

Dreams beat Kotoku Royals 1-0 in Premier League on September 17, 2022.

Goals: A. Huzaf (71').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.