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Kotoku Royals vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
F. A. Kumi 72' (pen), 37'
R. Dzikoe 32'
A. Tetteh 85'
I. Laar 58' (pen)
2/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals48%
×Draw26%
Bibiani Gold Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.48
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.99

Kotoku Royals creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
75%
Kotoku Royals or Bibiani Gold Stars
74%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
52%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
24%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
77%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
43%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
19%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
63%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
26%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
66%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
48%
level
26%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
25%

Kotoku Royals at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
32'
R. Dzikoe
37'
F. A. Kumi
53'
54'
58'
I. LaarPenalty
64'
72'
F. A. KumiPenalty
85'
A. Tetteh
87'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 3–2 Bibiani Gold Stars

Kotoku Royals beat Bibiani Gold Stars 3-2 in Premier League on February 1, 2023.

Goals: R. Dzikoe (32'), F. A. Kumi (37', 72' pen), I. Laar (58' pen), A. Tetteh (85').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.