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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
P. Owusu 51'
A. Tetteh 33' (pen), 5'
C. Kudjoe 27'
5/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars67%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.82
Kotoku Royals
0.60

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 203% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
88%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
33%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
40%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
84%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
54%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
27%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
45%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
12%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
85%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
67%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
12%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Tetteh
27'
C. Kudjoe
33'
A. TettehPenalty
37'
46'
C. Gyamfi← C. Gyamfi
46'
A. Yahaya← A. Yahaya
51'
P. Owusu
53'
59'
72'
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 3–1 Kotoku Royals

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Kotoku Royals 3-1 in Premier League on May 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Tetteh (5', 33' pen), C. Kudjoe (27'), P. Owusu (51').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.