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Kotoku Royals vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
R. Dzikoe 35'
E. Mensah 31'
Q. Kalo 9'
1/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals49%
×Draw26%
Berekum Chelsea25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.52
Berekum Chelsea
1.01

Kotoku Royals creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Berekum Chelsea
0.73

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
75%
Kotoku Royals or Berekum Chelsea
74%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
51%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
25%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
78%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
45%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
20%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
64%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
27%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
66%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
49%
level
26%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
25%

Kotoku Royals at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Q. Kalo
31'
E. Mensah
35'
R. Dzikoe
44'
G. Obeng Sekyere
46'
K. Obeng← K. Obeng
65'
G. Segla← G. Segla
65'
S. Boakye← S. Boakye
71'
P. Anane← P. Anane
71'
A. Kwabena← A. Kwabena
72'
B. Addo← B. Addo
73'
E. Oppong Opare
80'
E. Marfo← E. Marfo
80'
A. N. Mohammed← A. N. Mohammed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 2–1 Berekum Chelsea

Kotoku Royals beat Berekum Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on January 6, 2023.

Goals: Q. Kalo (9'), E. Mensah (31'), R. Dzikoe (35').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.