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Berekum Chelsea vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
P. Ansu 90+2'
K. Ouattara 48'
M. Zakari 13'
4/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berekum Chelsea64%
×Draw23%
Kotoku Royals13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.69
Kotoku Royals
0.59

Berekum Chelsea creates 186% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.59
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
87%
Berekum Chelsea or Kotoku Royals
77%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
36%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
37%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
82%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
50%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
24%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
45%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
12%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
84%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
64%
level
23%
Kotoku Royals scores more
13%

Berekum Chelsea at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Zakari
41'
48'
K. Ouattara
63'
67'
73'
90'
90+2'
P. Ansu
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 2–1 Kotoku Royals

Berekum Chelsea beat Kotoku Royals 2-1 in Premier League on April 26, 2023.

Goals: M. Zakari (13'), K. Ouattara (48'), P. Ansu (90+2').

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.