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Kotoku Royals vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
R. Dzikoe 36'
R. Dwamena 49'
M. Omgba 28', 8'
5/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals38%
×Draw29%
Asante Kotoko33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.17
Asante Kotoko
1.06

Kotoku Royals creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
67%
Kotoku Royals or Asante Kotoko
71%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
62%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
16%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
69%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
33%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
65%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
29%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
54%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.17

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
38%
level
29%
Asante Kotoko scores more
33%

Kotoku Royals at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Omgba
28'
M. Omgba
36'
R. Dzikoe
37'
F. Ali
46'
P. Asmah← P. Asmah
46'
S. Mohammed← S. Mohammed
49'
R. Dwamena
62'
E. Appiah
66'
R. Boadu← R. Boadu
66'
E. Morrison← E. Morrison
70'
P. Abanga← P. Abanga
70'
C. Kumi← C. Kumi
90+8'
90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 1–3 Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat Kotoku Royals 3-1 in Premier League on May 22, 2023.

Goals: M. Omgba (8', 28'), R. Dzikoe (36'), R. Dwamena (49').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.