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Asante Kotoko vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
S. Safo-Taylor 90+5'
S. Zeze 82'
S. Mukwala 61', 22' (pen)
R. Lamptey 11'
F. Kumi 29'
1/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Asante Kotoko65%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.77
Kotoku Royals
0.61

Asante Kotoko creates 190% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
88%
Asante Kotoko or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
35%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
38%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
83%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
53%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
26%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
46%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
13%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
84%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
65%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
12%

Asante Kotoko at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
R. Lamptey
22'
S. MukwalaPenalty
23'
E. Mensah
29'
F. Kumi
41'
41'
R. Nortey← R. Nortey
50'
J. Boateng
61'
S. Mukwala
82'
S. Zeze↳ S. Mukwala
86'
D. Awuah← D. Awuah
90+1'
90+1'
90+1'
S. Safo-Taylor← S. Safo-Taylor
90+2'
R. Nortey
90+5'
S. Safo-Taylor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 5–1 Kotoku Royals

Asante Kotoko beat Kotoku Royals 5-1 in Premier League on January 29, 2023.

Goals: R. Lamptey (11'), S. Mukwala (22' pen, 61'), F. Kumi (29'), S. Zeze (82'), S. Safo-Taylor (90+5').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.