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Kotoku Royals vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
P. Dogbe 90+3'
I. Mintah 71'
5/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals45%
×Draw27%
Aduana Stars28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.36
Aduana Stars
1.02

Kotoku Royals creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
72%
Kotoku Royals or Aduana Stars
73%
Draw or Aduana Stars
55%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
21%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
74%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
39%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
16%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
64%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
27%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
61%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
45%
level
27%
Aduana Stars scores more
28%

Kotoku Royals at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
49'
K. A. Frimpong
61'
P. Abanga
71'
I. Mintah
78'
F. Okai← F. Okai
80'
R. Danso← R. Danso
90+3'
P. Dogbe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotoku Royals vs Aduana Stars

Kotoku Royals and Aduana Stars drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 1, 2023.

Goals: I. Mintah (71'), P. Dogbe (90+3').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.