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Aduana Stars vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
S. Badu 45+3'
E. Gyamfi 17'
1/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aduana Stars66%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.76
Kotoku Royals
0.59

Aduana Stars creates 198% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
88%
Aduana Stars or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
34%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
38%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
83%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
52%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
26%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
45%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
12%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
85%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
66%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
12%

Aduana Stars at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
E. Gyamfi
45+3'
S. Badu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Kotoku Royals

Aduana Stars beat Kotoku Royals 2-0 in Premier League on January 12, 2023.

Goals: E. Gyamfi (17'), S. Badu (45+3').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.