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Kotoku Royals vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
A. Boakye 19'
9/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals51%
×Draw26%
Accra Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.52
Accra Lions
0.94

Kotoku Royals creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
77%
Kotoku Royals or Accra Lions
74%
Draw or Accra Lions
49%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
26%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
78%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
45%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
20%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
61%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
24%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
68%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
51%
level
26%
Accra Lions scores more
23%

Kotoku Royals at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Boakye
46'
S. Bassit← S. Bassit
46'
R. Adomako Boateng← R. Adomako Boateng
56'
60'
E. Okyere← E. Okyere
72'
F. Asante← F. Asante

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 1–0 Accra Lions

Kotoku Royals beat Accra Lions 1-0 in Premier League on September 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Boakye (19').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.