Accra Lions 1–1 Kotoku Royals: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kotoku Royals

S. Salifu 90+1' (pen)

F. A. Kumi 32'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 18Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Accra Lions61%

×Draw24%

Kotoku Royals15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchKotoku Royals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.71

Accra Lions

1.69

Kotoku Royals

0.71

Accra Lions creates 138% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

0.84

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

Kotoku Royals

0.59

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

Kotoku Royals

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Kotoku Royals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

85%

Accra Lions or Kotoku Royals

76%

Draw or Kotoku Royals

39%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

34%

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

82%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

50%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

24%

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

51%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

16%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

80%

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Accra Lions scores more

61%

level

24%

Kotoku Royals scores more

15%

Accra Lions at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

F. A. Kumi

47'

S. Oppong← S. Oppong

58'

S. Bassit← S. Bassit

58'

R. Adomako Boateng← R. Adomako Boateng

65'

70'

F. Kesse← F. Kesse

70'

E. Botchway← E. Botchway

85'

86'

90+1'

S. SalifuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff