Kostinbrod 1–2 Hebar II: Result & Stats

Kostinbrod

FT

1 – 2

Hebar II

8/19/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kostinbrod51%

×Draw26%

Hebar II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KostinbrodExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.89

Kostinbrod

1.47

Hebar II

0.89

Kostinbrod creates 65% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

1.32

creates per match

0.55

1.22

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kostinbrod

1.32

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

Kostinbrod

1.22

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw

77%

Kostinbrod or Hebar II

74%

Draw or Hebar II

49%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+

25%

Hebar II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals

77%

Kostinbrod 2+ goals

43%

Kostinbrod 3+ goals

18%

Hebar II 1+ goals

59%

Hebar II 2+ goals

22%

Hebar II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)

69%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kostinbrod scores more

51%

level

26%

Hebar II scores more

23%

Kostinbrod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff