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Hebar II vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
2 – 2
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
8/7/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 1Stadion Chepinets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II45%
×Draw25%
Kostinbrod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.57
Kostinbrod
1.24

Hebar II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
70%
Hebar II or Kostinbrod
75%
Draw or Kostinbrod
55%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
23%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
79%
Hebar II 2+ goals
46%
Hebar II 3+ goals
21%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
71%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
35%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
60%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hebar II scores more
45%
level
25%
Kostinbrod scores more
30%

Hebar II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar II vs Kostinbrod

Hebar II and Kostinbrod drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chepinets in Velingrad.