Kostinbrod 1–0 Granit Vladaya: Result & Stats

Kostinbrod

FT

1 – 0

Granit Vladaya

9/30/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod60%

×Draw21%

Granit Vladaya18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KostinbrodExpected goals in this matchGranit Vladaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.98

Kostinbrod

1.98

Granit Vladaya

0.98

Kostinbrod creates 102% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

1.32

creates per match

0.74

1.22

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Kostinbrod

1.32

Granit Vladaya

0.74

allows per match

Kostinbrod

1.22

Granit Vladaya

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Granit Vladaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw

82%

Kostinbrod or Granit Vladaya

79%

Draw or Granit Vladaya

40%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+

36%

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals

86%

Kostinbrod 2+ goals

59%

Kostinbrod 3+ goals

31%

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

62%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

26%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)

77%

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kostinbrod scores more

60%

level

21%

Granit Vladaya scores more

18%

Kostinbrod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff