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Granit Vladaya vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
0 – 4
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
2/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Izkustven Teren Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya38%
×Draw26%
Kostinbrod36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.39
Kostinbrod
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
64%
Granit Vladaya or Kostinbrod
74%
Draw or Kostinbrod
62%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
18%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
75%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
40%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
16%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
74%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
39%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
51%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
38%
level
26%
Kostinbrod scores more
36%

Granit Vladaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Kostinbrod

Kostinbrod beat Granit Vladaya 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Izkustven Teren Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.