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Kostinbrod vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
2/10/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 13Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kostinbrod45%
×Draw25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.56
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

Kostinbrod creates 29% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
70%
Kostinbrod or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
75%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
55%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
79%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
46%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
21%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
34%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
61%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
45%
level
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
30%

Kostinbrod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kostinbrod 2–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

CSKA 1948 Sofia III beat Kostinbrod 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.