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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
5/1/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 32Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III45%
×Draw25%
Kostinbrod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.57
Kostinbrod
1.22

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Kostinbrod
75%
Draw or Kostinbrod
55%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
23%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
79%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
46%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
21%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
70%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
34%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
60%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
45%
level
25%
Kostinbrod scores more
30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1–1 Kostinbrod

CSKA 1948 Sofia III and Kostinbrod drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.