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Kostinbrod vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
CANC
13:00
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
3/2/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 22Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod36%
×Draw26%
Chavdar Etropole39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.33
Chavdar Etropole
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 87 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
61%
Kostinbrod or Chavdar Etropole
74%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
64%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
16%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
74%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
38%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
15%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
75%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
40%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
48%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
36%
level
26%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
39%

Chavdar Etropole at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kostinbrod face Chavdar Etropole (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Kostinbrod hosting Chavdar Etropole. Match starts March 2, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kostinbrod host Chavdar Etropole at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.