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Chavdar Etropole vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
8/16/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 3Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Chavdar Etropole58%
×Draw23%
Kostinbrod19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.86
Kostinbrod
0.97

Chavdar Etropole creates 92% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
81%
Chavdar Etropole or Kostinbrod
77%
Draw or Kostinbrod
42%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
34%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
84%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
55%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
28%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
62%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
25%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
75%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
58%
level
23%
Kostinbrod scores more
19%

Chavdar Etropole at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 5–1 Kostinbrod

Chavdar Etropole beat Kostinbrod 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.