Kostelec na Hané 3–4 Tatran Všechovice

Kostelec na Hané

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Tatran Všechovice

8/27/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 4Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané41%

×Draw21%

Tatran Všechovice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kostelec na HanéExpected goals in this matchTatran Všechovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.04

Kostelec na Hané

2.09

Tatran Všechovice

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

1.67

creates per match

1.76

2.33

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané

1.67

Tatran Všechovice

1.76

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané

2.33

Tatran Všechovice

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Tatran Všechovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw

61%

Kostelec na Hané or Tatran Všechovice

79%

Draw or Tatran Všechovice

59%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

23%

Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

88%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

62%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

34%

Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals

87%

Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals

60%

Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

51%

Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Tatran Všechovice away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.51 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Tatran Všechovice defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.09

Tatran Všechovice attack 1.76 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more

41%

level

21%

Tatran Všechovice scores more

39%

Kostelec na Hané at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kostelec na Hané will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Kostelec na Hané 3–4 Tatran Všechovice

Tatran Všechovice beat Kostelec na Hané 4-3 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Hrište Kostelec na Hané in Kostelec na Hané.

Kostelec na Hané vs Tatran Všechovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

4. liga - Divizie E: Kostelec na Hané 3–4 Tatran Všechovice