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Kosovo vs Türkiye — League #32 2026

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Türkiye
Türkiyeadvanced
K. Akturkoglu 53'
3/31/2026League #32League #32 · FinalStadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kosovo34%
×Draw24%
Türkiye42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
1.41
Türkiye
1.60

Türkiye creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kosovo
0.67
Türkiye
1.71

allows per match

Kosovo
1.50
Türkiye
2.14

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
58%
Kosovo or Türkiye
76%
Draw or Türkiye
66%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
15%
Türkiye wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
76%
Kosovo 2+ goals
41%
Kosovo 3+ goals
17%
Türkiye 1+ goals
80%
Türkiye 2+ goals
47%
Türkiye 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
45%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 0.67 + Türkiye defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Türkiye attack 1.71 + Kosovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kosovo scores more
34%
level
24%
Türkiye scores more
42%

Türkiye at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
O. KokcuTürkiyeTürkiye · M
8.3

Match Events

45+1'
Albian Hajdari
45+1'
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
53'
K. Akturkoglu↳ O. Kokcu
55'
İsmail Yüksek
64'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
68'
B. A. Yilmaz← K. Akturkoglu
70'
Zeki Çelik
71'
E. Zhegrova← M. Vojvoda
80'
M. Rashica← E. Rexhbecaj
80'
F. Aliti← A. Hajdari
83'
Florent Muslija
83'
E. Elmali← H. Calhanoglu
83'
S. Ozcan← A. Guler
89'
M. Muldur← Z. Celik
89'
D. Gul← K. Yildiz
90+1'
Milot Rashica
90'
Uğurcan Çakır
90+1'
A. Rrahmani← V. Hodza

Possession

43%Kosovo

Shots

11Kosovo

Pass accuracy

46%Kosovo

Statistics

KosovoTürkiye
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots12
3Corners2
12Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots12
2On Target3
5Off Target3
4Blocked6
5Inside Box7
6Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
369Total Passes503
269Accurate Passes423
73%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
3Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

League #32: Kosovo 0–1 Türkiye

Türkiye beat Kosovo 1-0 in League #32 on March 31, 2026.

Goals: K. Akturkoglu (53').

Türkiye controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.