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Kosovo vs Türkiye — League #32 2026

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Türkiye
Türkiye
6/11/2017League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 6Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kosovo34%
×Draw23%
Türkiye43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
1.53
Türkiye
1.75

Türkiye creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kosovo
0.67
Türkiye
2.00

allows per match

Kosovo
1.50
Türkiye
2.40

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
57%
Kosovo or Türkiye
77%
Draw or Türkiye
66%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
16%
Türkiye wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
78%
Kosovo 2+ goals
45%
Kosovo 3+ goals
20%
Türkiye 1+ goals
83%
Türkiye 2+ goals
52%
Türkiye 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
44%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Türkiye away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 0.67 + Türkiye defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Türkiye attack 2.00 + Kosovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kosovo scores more
34%
level
23%
Türkiye scores more
43%

Türkiye at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #32: Kosovo 1–4 Türkiye

Türkiye beat Kosovo 4-1 in League #32 on June 11, 2017.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.