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Kosovo vs England — Euro Championship 2024

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
England
England
M. Mount 90+1'
M. Rashford 83'
H. Kane 79'
H. Winks 32'
11/17/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 10Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kosovo18%
×Draw21%
England60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
0.99
England
1.98

England creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kosovo
1.25
England
2.45

allows per match

Kosovo
1.50
England
0.73

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
England+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

England →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
40%
Kosovo or England
79%
Draw or England
82%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
6%
England wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
63%
Kosovo 2+ goals
26%
Kosovo 3+ goals
8%
England 1+ goals
86%
England 2+ goals
59%
England 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
23%
England (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

England away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 1.25 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.99

England attack 2.45 + Kosovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kosovo scores more
18%
level
21%
England scores more
60%

England at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
H. KaneEnglandEngland · F
8.6

Match Events

32'
H. Winks↳ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
48'
Benjamin Kololli
59'
M. Rashford← C. Hudson-Odoi
65'
B. Halimi← V. Berisha
72'
M. Mount← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
73'
E. Zhegrova← F. Hadërgjonaj
79'
H. Kane
82'
E. Rashani← A. Nuhiu
83'
M. Rashford↳ R. Sterling
84'
F. Tomori← T. Alexander-Arnold
90+1'
M. Mount↳ H. Kane

Possession

44%Kosovo

Shots

12Kosovo

Pass accuracy

49%Kosovo

Statistics

KosovoEngland
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots13
6Corners2
8Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target7
8Off Target1
1Blocked5
6Inside Box11
6Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
473Total Passes603
411Accurate Passes537
87%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0

Euro Championship: Kosovo 0–4 England

England beat Kosovo 4-0 in Euro Championship on November 17, 2019.

Goals: H. Winks (32'), H. Kane (79'), M. Rashford (83'), M. Mount (90+1').

England controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.