England 5–3 Kosovo: Result & Stats

England

FT

5 – 3

HT: 5 – 1

Kosovo

J. Sancho 45+1', 44'

M. Vojvoda 38' (OG)

H. Kane 19'

R. Sterling 8'

V. Muriqi 55' (pen)

V. Berisha 49', 1'

9/10/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

England71%

×Draw16%

Kosovo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchKosovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.09

England

2.70

Kosovo

1.09

England creates 148% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

1.80

0.38

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

England

3.00

Kosovo

1.80

allows per match

England

0.38

Kosovo

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Kosovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

England or draw

87%

England or Kosovo

84%

Draw or Kosovo

29%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

50%

Kosovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

93%

England 2+ goals

75%

England 3+ goals

50%

Kosovo 1+ goals

66%

Kosovo 2+ goals

30%

Kosovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

84%

Kosovo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Kosovo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Kosovo attack 1.80 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

England scores more

71%

level

16%

Kosovo scores more

13%

England at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Sterling

England · F

9.5

Match Events

1'

V. Berisha↳ V. Muriqi

8'

R. Sterling↳ M. Keane

19'

H. Kane↳ R. Sterling

38'

M. VojvodaOwn goal

44'

J. Sancho↳ R. Sterling

45+1'

J. Sancho

46'

L. Paqarada← F. Muslija

49'

V. Berisha↳ V. Muriqi

55'

V. MuriqiPenalty

59'

63'

65'

70'

83'

83'

85'

M. Rashford← J. Sancho

85'

F. Hasani← V. Berisha

86'

Anel Rashkaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandKosovo

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots8

6Corners0

5Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots8

10On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

15Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

658Total Passes471

584Accurate Passes398

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls9

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2