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Kosovo vs Cyprus — UEFA Nations League 2018

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cyprus
Cyprus
E. Sahiti 70'
E. Krasniqi 52'
Amir Rrahmani 30'
10/15/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kosovo70%
×Draw19%
Cyprus11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
2.08
Cyprus
0.69

Kosovo creates 201% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kosovo
2.00
Cyprus
0.54

allows per match

Kosovo
0.83
Cyprus
2.15

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Cyprus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
89%
Kosovo or Cyprus
81%
Draw or Cyprus
30%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
45%
Cyprus wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
87%
Kosovo 2+ goals
61%
Kosovo 3+ goals
34%
Cyprus 1+ goals
50%
Cyprus 2+ goals
15%
Cyprus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
86%
Cyprus (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kosovo scores more
70%
level
19%
Cyprus scores more
11%

Kosovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Amir RrahmaniKosovoKosovo · D
8.5

Match Events

7'
Konstantinos Laifis
8'
Edon Zhegrova
8'
Nicholas Ioannou
16'
F. Muslija← M. Rashica
30'
Amir Rrahmani↳ F. Muslija
45+2'
Ermal KrasniqiPenalty cancelled
46'
K. Pileas← N. Ioannou
52'
E. Krasniqi
67'
E. Sahiti← E. Zhegrova
70'
E. Sahiti
72'
M. Antoniou← A. Karo
72'
R. Mamas← G. Kastanos
72'
M. Tzionis← A. Makris
77'
F. Aliti← Amir Rrahmani
77'
P. Sotiriou← I. Pittas
78'
F. Asllani← Albion Rrahmani
79'
Loizos Loizou
89'
Pieros SotiriouGoal cancelled

Possession

63%Kosovo

Shots

15Kosovo

Pass accuracy

54%Kosovo

Statistics

KosovoCyprus
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots11
5Corners6
9Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target4
6Off Target5
3Blocked2
9Inside Box7
6Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
567Total Passes310
488Accurate Passes228
86%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Kosovo 3 – 0 Cyprus

Kosovo beat Cyprus 3-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 15, 2024.

Goals: Amir Rrahmani (30'), E. Krasniqi (52'), E. Sahiti (70').

Kosovo controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Prishtinë.