Kosovo 5–1 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Kosovo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cyprus

V. Muriqi 84', 52'

E. Rashani 46'

D. Rrudhani 45+1'

F. Muslija 22'

V. Roberge 81'

9/27/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kosovo70%

×Draw19%

Cyprus11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosovoExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.69

Kosovo

2.08

Cyprus

0.69

Kosovo creates 201% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

0.54

0.83

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Kosovo

2.00

Cyprus

0.54

allows per match

Kosovo

0.83

Cyprus

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw

89%

Kosovo or Cyprus

81%

Draw or Cyprus

30%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+

45%

Cyprus wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals

87%

Kosovo 2+ goals

61%

Kosovo 3+ goals

34%

Cyprus 1+ goals

50%

Cyprus 2+ goals

15%

Cyprus 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)

86%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kosovo scores more

70%

level

19%

Cyprus scores more

11%

Kosovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

V. Muriqi

Kosovo · F

8.9

Match Events

22'

F. Muslija

43'

Kostakis Artymatas

45+1'

D. Rrudhani↳ V. Muriqi

46'

D. Christofi← C. Kyriakou

46'

C. Charalampous← L. Loizou

46'

E. Rashani

52'

V. Muriqi↳ F. Muslija

59'

F. Papoulis← M. Tzionis

59'

A. Gogić← G. Kastanos

64'

I. Drešević← A. Rrahmani

64'

Z. Bytyqi← E. Rashani

65'

Mirlind Kryeziu

72'

A. Kakoullis← P. Sotiriou

81'

V. Roberge↳ S. Andreou

82'

M. Rashica← A. Zeneli

84'

V. Muriqi↳ M. Rashica

89'

L. Emërllahu← F. Hadërgjonaj

89'

I. Krasniqi← F. Muslija

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KosovoCyprus

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots6

11Corners2

6Fouls6

Shots

22Total Shots6

11On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

17Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

639Total Passes345

574Accurate Passes276

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

UEFA Nations League: Kosovo 5–1 Cyprus

Kosovo beat Cyprus 5-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 27, 2022.

Goals: F. Muslija (22'), D. Rrudhani (45+1'), E. Rashani (46'), V. Muriqi (52', 84'), V. Roberge (81').

Kosovo controlled possession (65%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Prishtinë.

Kosovo vs Cyprus — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Nations League: Kosovo 5–1 Cyprus