Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2–0 Kolomna: Result & Stats

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kolomna

8/18/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny65%

×Draw20%

Kolomna15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kosmos DolgoprudnyExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.93

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

2.16

Kolomna

0.93

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 132% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 55 away

1.70

creates per match

0.76

1.10

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.70

Kolomna

0.76

allows per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.10

Kolomna

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmos Dolgoprudny ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kosmos Dolgoprudny or draw

85%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny or Kolomna

80%

Draw or Kolomna

35%

Winning margin

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

41%

Kolomna wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

88%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

63%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

36%

Kolomna 1+ goals

61%

Kolomna 2+ goals

24%

Kolomna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

81%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.70 + Kolomna defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.16

Kolomna attack 0.76 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more

65%

level

20%

Kolomna scores more

15%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff