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Kolomna vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
5/5/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kolomna28%
×Draw23%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.33
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.82

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.44
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Kolomna
1.98
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
51%
Kolomna or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
77%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
72%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
12%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
74%
Kolomna 2+ goals
38%
Kolomna 3+ goals
15%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
84%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
54%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
37%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kolomna scores more
28%
level
23%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
49%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolomna vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Kolomna 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Kolomna.