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Kosmos Dolgoprudny vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Balashikha
Balashikha
7/24/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny65%
×Draw21%
Balashikha14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.97
Balashikha
0.79

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 149% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.70
Balashikha
0.47

allows per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.10
Balashikha
2.24

finishing

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmos Dolgoprudny ↓

Balashikha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kosmos Dolgoprudny or draw
86%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny or Balashikha
79%
Draw or Balashikha
35%

Winning margin

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
40%
Balashikha wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
86%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
58%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
31%
Balashikha 1+ goals
55%
Balashikha 2+ goals
19%
Balashikha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
82%
Balashikha (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.70 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.97

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
65%
level
21%
Balashikha scores more
14%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosmos Dolgoprudny vs Balashikha

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Balashikha 6-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.