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Balashikha vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
11/9/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha20%
×Draw20%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.15
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.16

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 88% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
40%
Balashikha or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
80%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
80%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
7%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
68%
Balashikha 2+ goals
32%
Balashikha 3+ goals
11%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
88%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
63%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
25%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Balashikha scores more
20%
level
20%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
60%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balashikha vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Balashikha 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.