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Kosmonosy vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
CANC
09:30
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 9Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kosmonosy66%
×Draw17%
Horky nad Jizerou17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
2.66
Horky nad Jizerou
1.29

Kosmonosy creates 106% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
83%
Kosmonosy or Horky nad Jizerou
83%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
34%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
45%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
93%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
74%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
49%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
72%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
37%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
80%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.66

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
66%
level
17%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
17%

Kosmonosy at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kosmonosy face Horky nad Jizerou (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Kosmonosy hosting Horky nad Jizerou. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kosmonosy host Horky nad Jizerou at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.