Horky nad Jizerou vs Kosmonosy

Horky nad Jizerou

CANC

15:00

Kosmonosy

5/15/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Hřiště FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou48%

×Draw22%

Kosmonosy30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchKosmonosy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.56

Horky nad Jizerou

2.01

Kosmonosy

1.56

Horky nad Jizerou creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

2.04

creates per match

1.49

1.64

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou

2.04

Kosmonosy

1.49

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou

1.64

Kosmonosy

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Kosmonosy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Kosmonosy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw

70%

Horky nad Jizerou or Kosmonosy

78%

Draw or Kosmonosy

52%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

27%

Kosmonosy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

87%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

59%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

32%

Kosmonosy 1+ goals

79%

Kosmonosy 2+ goals

46%

Kosmonosy 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

61%

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Kosmonosy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Kosmonosy defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kosmonosy attack 1.49 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

48%

level

22%

Kosmonosy scores more

30%

Horky nad Jizerou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff