Kosmonosy 3–0 Hlinsko: Result & Stats

Kosmonosy

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hlinsko

11/11/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kosmonosy59%

×Draw19%

Hlinsko22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosmonosyExpected goals in this matchHlinsko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.49

Kosmonosy

2.48

Hlinsko

1.49

Kosmonosy creates 66% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

2.67

creates per match

1.35

1.63

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Kosmonosy

2.67

Hlinsko

1.35

allows per match

Kosmonosy

1.63

Hlinsko

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par

Hlinsko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Hlinsko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw

78%

Kosmonosy or Hlinsko

81%

Draw or Hlinsko

41%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+

38%

Hlinsko wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals

92%

Kosmonosy 2+ goals

70%

Kosmonosy 3+ goals

44%

Hlinsko 1+ goals

77%

Hlinsko 2+ goals

44%

Hlinsko 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)

72%

Hlinsko (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Hlinsko away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Hlinsko defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hlinsko attack 1.35 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kosmonosy scores more

59%

level

19%

Hlinsko scores more

22%

Kosmonosy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff