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Hlinsko vs Kosmonosy — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
6/9/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 30Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hlinsko49%
×Draw22%
Kosmonosy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
1.94
Kosmonosy
1.44

Hlinsko creates 35% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Kosmonosy
1.49

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Kosmonosy
1.98

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Kosmonosy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Kosmonosy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
71%
Hlinsko or Kosmonosy
78%
Draw or Kosmonosy
51%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
28%
Kosmonosy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
86%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
58%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
30%
Kosmonosy 1+ goals
76%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
42%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
63%
Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Kosmonosy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Kosmonosy defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kosmonosy attack 1.49 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hlinsko scores more
49%
level
22%
Kosmonosy scores more
29%

Hlinsko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Hlinsko 4–1 Kosmonosy

Hlinsko beat Kosmonosy 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Hlinsko.