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Korona Rzeszow vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
FT
1 – 3
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
10/2/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Crasnovia Krasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow37%
×Draw23%
Czarni Połaniec41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Rzeszow
1.63
Czarni Połaniec
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow
1.24
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow
2.12
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw
59%
Korona Rzeszow or Czarni Połaniec
77%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
63%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
18%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
80%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
48%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
22%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
82%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
52%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
47%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.63

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more
37%
level
23%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
41%

Czarni Połaniec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Korona Rzeszow 1–3 Czarni Połaniec

Czarni Połaniec beat Korona Rzeszow 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Crasnovia Krasne in Krasne.