Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Korona Rzeszow: Result & Stats

Czarni Połaniec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Korona Rzeszow

5/7/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Czarni Połaniec53%

×Draw22%

Korona Rzeszow25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni PołaniecExpected goals in this matchKorona Rzeszow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.31

Czarni Połaniec

1.99

Korona Rzeszow

1.31

Czarni Połaniec creates 52% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

1.24

1.38

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.74

Korona Rzeszow

1.24

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.38

Korona Rzeszow

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Korona Rzeszow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw

75%

Czarni Połaniec or Korona Rzeszow

78%

Draw or Korona Rzeszow

47%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

31%

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

86%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

59%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

32%

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals

73%

Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals

38%

Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

68%

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.99

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more

53%

level

22%

Korona Rzeszow scores more

25%

Czarni Połaniec at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff