Korona Kielce 2–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

K. Sotiriou 52'

M. Pieczek 43'

I. Durdov 58'

3/7/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 24Exbud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Korona Kielce49%

×Draw23%

Nieciecza28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.30

Korona Kielce

1.81

Nieciecza

1.30

Korona Kielce creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.39

1.22

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.67

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.22

Nieciecza

1.96

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.19scores less

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

72%

Korona Kielce or Nieciecza

77%

Draw or Nieciecza

51%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

84%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

54%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

27%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

73%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

37%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

64%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 33 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.67 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Korona Kielce defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

49%

level

23%

Nieciecza scores more

28%

Korona Kielce at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Pieczek

Korona Kielce · M

8.7

Match Events

43'

M. Pieczek↳ K. Sotiriou

46'

A. Putivtsev← M. Matysik

52'

K. Sotiriou

53'

M. Fassbender← S. Guerrero

53'

K. Kubica← I. Strzalek

58'

I. Durdov↳ R. Boboc

64'

D. Blanik← Antonin

65'

J. Jimenez← A. Trubeha

68'

S. Davidovic← S. Gustafson

77'

K. Zapolnik← R. Boboc

83'

Nono← M. Remacle

83'

H. Zwozny← W. Dlugosz

90+8'

Mariusz Stępiński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoronaNieciecza

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots17

2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.97

5Corners6

19Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots17

4On Target2

5Off Target8

1Blocked7

9Inside Box14

1Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

373Total Passes355

293Accurate Passes267

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.54Goals Prevented0.54

Discipline

19Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1