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Korona Kielce vs Nieciecza — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
CANC
00:00
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
7/9/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Korona Kielce25%
×Draw24%
Nieciecza50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.11
Nieciecza
1.66

Nieciecza creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.13
Nieciecza
2.50

allows per match

Korona Kielce
0.81
Nieciecza
1.10

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
50%
Korona Kielce or Nieciecza
76%
Draw or Nieciecza
75%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
10%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
67%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
30%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
10%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
81%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
49%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
34%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.13 + Nieciecza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nieciecza attack 2.50 + Korona Kielce defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
25%
level
24%
Nieciecza scores more
50%

Nieciecza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Korona Kielce host Nieciecza

July 9, 2021: Korona Kielce take on Nieciecza in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Korona Kielce host Nieciecza at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.