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Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
8/10/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Korona Kielce48%
×Draw24%
Cracovia Krakow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.70
Cracovia Krakow
1.25

Korona Kielce creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.61
Cracovia Krakow
1.08

allows per match

Korona Kielce
1.42
Cracovia Krakow
1.78

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.18scores less
Cracovia Krakow-0.08on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
72%
Korona Kielce or Cracovia Krakow
76%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
52%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
25%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
82%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
51%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
24%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
71%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
36%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
63%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.61 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Korona Kielce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
48%
level
24%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
28%

Korona Kielce at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow

Cracovia Krakow beat Korona Kielce 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kielce.