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Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2018

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
2/14/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 21Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cracovia Krakow45%
×Draw26%
Korona Kielce28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
1.43
Korona Kielce
1.07

Cracovia Krakow creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.22
Korona Kielce
1.24

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
0.91
Korona Kielce
1.64

finishing

Cracovia Krakow-0.31scores less
Korona Kielce-0.36scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
72%
Cracovia Krakow or Korona Kielce
74%
Draw or Korona Kielce
55%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
22%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
76%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
42%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
17%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
66%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
29%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
62%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.64 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.22 + Korona Kielce defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Korona Kielce attack 1.24 + Cracovia Krakow defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
45%
level
26%
Korona Kielce scores more
28%

Cracovia Krakow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce

Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.