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Korona Kielce U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
11/5/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korona Kielce U1945%
×Draw21%
Jagiellonia U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce U19
2.02
Jagiellonia U19
1.73

Korona Kielce U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 53 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce U19
2.04
Jagiellonia U19
1.64

allows per match

Korona Kielce U19
1.83
Jagiellonia U19
2.00

finishing

Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U19 or draw
66%
Korona Kielce U19 or Jagiellonia U19
79%
Draw or Jagiellonia U19
55%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
25%
Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
87%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
60%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
33%
Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
82%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
52%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U19 attack 2.04 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Korona Kielce U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Jagiellonia U19 scores more
34%

Korona Kielce U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Korona Kielce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce U19 vs Jagiellonia U19

Jagiellonia U19 beat Korona Kielce U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on November 5, 2023.